The Microcap Minute Macro

The US economy in eight numbers

America's report card, in plain English.

These eight numbers decide what things cost, whether jobs are growing, and what the government owes. We read them every morning from the US government's own published data, and explain each one the way we would to a friend.

Updated once daily, after US government data is published.

Live estimate

What is the Iran operation costing?

A running estimate of what US military operations tied to Iran have cost taxpayers, counting from the first strike on February 28, 2026. It uses the Pentagon's preliminary rate: about $1 billion a day (the first six days alone were $11.3 billion, per the Pentagon's briefing to Congress). The independent tracker that popularized this rate froze its own count at $113.3 billion on June 16, 2026; this clock keeps accruing at that daily rate. An estimate, not a ledger.

Rate source: Pentagon preliminary estimate via iran-cost-ticker.com · method: bottom-up cost model (aircraft, naval deployments, munitions).

$113,300,000,000
accruing at about $11,574 every second

How fast are prices rising?

3.4%

Prices are 3.4% higher than a year ago (July 2026), on the CPICPI is the Consumer Price Index, the government's official measure of how much everyday prices changed., the government's main price measure. CoreCore inflation leaves out food and fuel, because their prices jump around a lot and can hide the real trend. inflation, which leaves out food and fuel, is 2.5%.

Why you care: when prices rise faster than pay, the money in your pocket buys a little less each month.

last 12 months
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · data as of July 2026

Is America hiring?

23,000 jobs lost
in July 2026

The unemployment rate, the share of workers who cannot find a job, is 4.1%, down from 4.2% a month earlier.

About 206,000 people filed new claims for unemployment support in the week ending 2026-08-29.

Why you care: more hiring means more paychecks, and more people with money to spend.

monthly jobs added, last 12 months
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · data as of July 2026
Weekly claims: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

How much does America owe?

$40.1 trillion

That is about $117,300 for every person in America.

Why you care: the government pays interest on this debt with tax money, before it pays for anything else.

month-end totals, last 12 months
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data · data as of 2026-09-02

How much cash does the government have?

$942.8 billion

That is the government's checking account balance, roughly. Officials call it the TGATGA is the Treasury General Account, the bank account the U.S. government pays its bills from..

Why you care: when this account runs low, Washington must borrow more or slow down payments.

daily balance, last 30 days
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data · data as of 2026-09-02

What does America pay to borrow?

4.77%
a year, to borrow for ten years

Two-year money costs 4.34%. When the ten-year cost is higher, lenders expect growth and prices to keep rising.

The government actually pays 3.44% on average on the debt it already has (July 2026).

The Federal Reserve's own rate, the one every other rate follows, is 3.63% (as of 2026-09-02).

Why you care: this rate sets the tone for mortgages, car loans, and every other borrowing cost.

recent ten-year yield, daily
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury · data as of 2026-09-03
Fed funds rate: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

How strong is the dollar?

118.7
on the dollar index, weaker than a month ago (119.7)

The index is the dollar's price against a basket of the world's big currencies: the euro, the yen, the pound and others. Higher means a stronger dollar.

Why you care: a stronger dollar makes imports and foreign travel cheaper, but makes what America sells costlier for the world.

dollar index, last 30 days
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · data as of 2026-08-28
Broad dollar index: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

What does a home loan cost?

6.71%
a year, for a standard 30-year home loan; up from 6.53% a year ago

This is the average rate America's main mortgage survey reports each week. On a $300,000 loan, every 1% moves the monthly payment by roughly $200.

Why you care: this one number decides how much house an ordinary family can afford, and how fast homes sell.

30-year mortgage rate, weekly
Source: Freddie Mac via FRED · data as of 2026-09-03
Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

How confident do Americans feel?

55.2
on the University of Michigan confidence survey, up from 49.5 the month before

Every month the survey asks American households how they feel about their money and the economy, and turns the answers into one number. Above 80 is cheerful; below 60 is gloomy.

Why you care: confident people spend and worried people hold back, and household spending is most of the US economy.

consumer sentiment, monthly
Source: University of Michigan via FRED · data as of 2026-07-01
Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

More numbers worth watching

Eight more gauges, in the same plain words. Each updates on its own schedule, from weekly to quarterly.

Is the Fed's own inflation gauge cooling?

3.3%

Core PCE prices versus a year ago. This is the inflation number the Federal Reserve watches most closely.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED · 2026-07-01

How fast is the economy growing?

1.5%

Real GDP growth at a yearly pace, last quarter. The broadest measure of whether the economy is expanding.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED · 2026-04-01

Are Americans shopping?

$764 billion

What Americans spent in shops and restaurants last month. Household spending is most of the US economy.

U.S. Census Bureau via FRED · 2026-07-01

Are factories making more?

103.0

US factory, mine and utility output as an index (2017 = 100). Rising means industry is producing more.

Federal Reserve via FRED · 2026-07-01

Are new homes being built?

1.24 million

New homes started last month, at a yearly pace. A live signal for building, jobs and materials.

U.S. Census Bureau via FRED · 2026-07-01

What does oil cost?

$91.48

One barrel of US benchmark crude (WTI). It feeds straight into what petrol, diesel and freight cost.

U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED · 2026-09-01

How many jobs are open?

7.3 million

Unfilled job openings across the US. More openings than job seekers means workers have the edge.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED · 2026-07-01

How much do people save?

3.0%

The share of take-home pay Americans saved last month. Low savings mean little cushion for shocks.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED · 2026-07-01